Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran have exposed how much remains unresolved. Fighting resumed earlier this month, with tankers coming under fire around the Strait of Hormuz. The US is maintaining its own blockade of the strait while desperately trying to facilitate convoys carrying fuel past Iran’s efforts to block it. Negotiations haven’t worked either, or perhaps haven’t been sincerely tried.
With the midterms approaching, these developments raise another urgent question: how much worse could this get once the election is over? If the political restraint imposed by an upcoming election disappears, what will keep Trump from dramatically escalating the war in an effort to defeat Iran?
The immediate danger is another escalation in what is becoming a cycle of attacks and retaliation. And war is unpredictable. A naval confrontation, an attack on US troops, or more strikes on energy infrastructure could trigger a larger operation. Without an agreement addressing the disputes driving the fighting, even temporary ceasefires won’t remove the danger.
Meanwhile, both the direct costs of war and the economic consequences continue to mount. Americans are paying for it not only with their tax dollars but also through inflation. Disrupted energy supplies increase transportation and production costs, putting pressure on food prices, business budgets, and household spending.
Renewed fighting in Yemen is adding to the strain. Yemeni forces, known as the Houthis by most Americans, have advanced along the Red Sea coast and captured strategic islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This threatens shipping through another critical passage, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, which in turn leads to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean. This route had been providing an alternative outlet for some Saudi oil transported overland, bypassing Hormuz. Houthi activity now threatens those rerouted shipments adding uncertainty, and cost, to energy markets. It also threatens ships of all kinds that would like to avoid the cost and time it takes to sail around the southern tip of Africa.
This comes as the Trump administration is advancing a proposed $5 billion sale of guided bombs and related equipment to Saudi Arabia. The package includes 10,000 bombs, a sign that a return to full scale war in Yemen is possible. The US Senate has a few more days to announce a Joint Resolution of Disapproval to try and block these bombs, but time is running out. Doubling down to relieve pressure on this Red Sea outlet won’t solve this man-made energy crisis. Only a wider resolution can achieve that.
Diesel offers one striking example of the wider supply crisis: the US national average surpassed $6 a gallon for the first time on September 11. These effects connect a distant war to the kitchen-table concerns of American families. Higher freight and farming costs hit families in the form of rising grocery prices, even if those families never buy diesel themselves. With winter approaching, tight fuel supplies and rising seasonal demand are also creating concerns about heating costs.
All this makes the Iran war a significant issue in the November midterm debate. A Quinnipiac poll released after the interim U.S.-Iran agreement found that 60 percent of registered voters considered the military action not worth it, while 34 percent considered it worthwhile. This war continues to be broadly unpopular.
Congressional disagreement is also visible. On September 15, seven Republicans joined Democrats in a 220–204 House vote for a war powers resolution. It was the House’s third vote to end the conflict, though those votes haven’t yet stopped Trump’s military attacks or pressured him enough to take a different course.
The upcoming midterm elections raise another question: will anything change once the voting is over? Trump has said the war would likely end “immediately after” the midterms. Like so many other promises from this president, that prediction isn’t very reassuring.
One concern is that the election itself may be providing a temporary incentive for restraint. The president’s fear of an immediate electoral backlash may be discouraging him from expanding the war. That immediate pressure goes away after November.
Other constraints on President Trump will remain. These include depleted munitions inventories for both interceptor and offensive missiles, economic damage from continued energy disruptions, and growing congressional and popular opposition. A change in congressional control could alter oversight and funding decisions, although newly elected members won’t take office until January.
The midterms will change the political math, but the election, by itself, won’t resolve the war. Whether the war escalates, ends, or simply drags on will depend on how much the forces around the president, whether in Congress, the Courts, or even within the military itself, prioritize putting limits on President Trump and, if that fails, forcing his hand through funding cuts or impeachment for crimes against the Constitution. What’s clear already is that, unchecked, this president will not bring us the peace he promised.
By Brian Garvey