The United States and Israel are waging a misguided war on Iran. Meanwhile, China, who the US sees as its biggest geopolitical rival, seems to have stayed out of it. Judging from how this war has played out, the US could stand to learn from its competitor’s way of doing foreign policy. What will be the long-term effect of the Iran war on the world? Is this the prelude to a change of hegemon, from the United States to China?
China has made clear that this is NOT its war. It will not get involved militarily. However this war is having an impact on the entire world, including China. China imports large quantities of fuel oil from Iran and in 2021 entered into a 25 year political and economic agreement with Iran that covers areas of trade, including military supplies and also guarantees reduced-price oil to China in return for their support. Starting at the beginning of 2026 China began increasing it’s imports of oil and now has massive stockpiles of oil. In addition, for years China has been developing its energy production, especially green energy, and at this point is 85% energy independent, with 52% of its energy needs met by renewable. It is the largest producer of solar cells and of wind turbines in the world. All this means that China will feel the impact of the reduction in oil available less than most other countries.
Right after the start of the war, China banned oil-product exports, but since then has given assistance to countries that asked it for help. China has been helping countries suffering from the fuel-oil blockade. Many neighboring countries, including the Phillipines, Australia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, have asked for help and received it. They are relying on China to provide relief from the shortages caused by the war. China has also encouraged countries to develop green energy. It has been developing and supporting green technology for years in countries around the world and this war has allowed it to extend its influence.
The rise in price of fuel oil could result in less external demand for the products of China’s manufacturing and therefore a decrease in the revenue received, but Zhang Weiwei points out that China has met with many disasters over its history and knows how to handle disaster. It has called for peace through the UN security council, through its envoy in the Middle East, and in bringing Tehran’s participation in peace talks in Islamabad. The China-Pakistan Five-Point Plan to end the Middle East War called for an immediate cease-fire, a start to peace talks, an end to attacks on non-military targets, the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and respect for the UN Charter.
In each of these aspects of the war, China’s reasoned, calm response to the situation has contrasted sharply with the reactions of the United States. While Trump declared that he will wipe out an entire civilization, Xi called for peace through the UN security council. When the U.S. went ahead with a total blockade of Iranian ports, China stood firm in support of Iran, declaring that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. The actions of the United States are of great concern to the Global South, who stand to be most affected by the rising cost of oil. China has been a voice of support for the Global South and its preferred vision of multipolarity and international law. All of this reduces the admiration for the United States in the world and increases the status of China.
What is China’s foreign policy? Zhang Weiwei contrasted China’s approach with that of the United States. “The United States looks at countries as friend or foe. Their approach is divide and rule. In China we look at countries as friend or potential friend. Our approach is unite and prosper.”
China adopted the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in 1954 and has operated by these principles since then. The Five Principles are
- mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,
- mutual non aggression,
- mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs,
- equality and co-operation for mutual benefit,
- peaceful co-existence
China is not attempting to become the next hegemon. What it is looking for is a multipolar world, where it is respected as an equal partner of the United States and the other Great Nations, and where all nations operate according to the principles stated in the United Nations Charter. The world order China wants is based on trade and stability. Xi says that the common interests between the United States and China outweigh the differences. China wants a new vision of building a constructive China-United States relationship of strategic stability. This is the most effective way to increase prosperity in the world.
We are already in a multipolar world. We need to get the United States and its allies to recognize that and to operate according to the principles stated in the United Nations Charter. We would all benefit from adopting the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence that China has formulated.
by Jeanne Trubek
