by Merri Ansara
US-Cuba policy has come to what might be the ultimate crossroads; in fact it may better be described as a T intersection. This is what I believe to be before us, based in part on my own 55 year experience in studying and living US-Cuba relations and on the excellent conference organized by the Quincy Institute and Lee Schlenker this past week, with William LeoGrande, Vicki Huddleston and Jeffrey DeLaurentis.
US-Cuba Policy at the Final Crossroads
US Policy towards Cuba may be at its final crossroads: Either the US decides to reckon with the reality of Cuba and its government and society as it is; or it decides to continue on a path to relentless punishment and destruction that can lead only to all out humanitarian crisis and the shaming of the United States and all its values and moral standing in the eyes of the world.
On January 29th, President Trump, with the excuse that Cuba is a hostile country that harbors terrorists and supports and finances extremist organizations, announced a virtual oil blockade around Cuba, threatening tariffs on any country that dares to supply oil to Cuba. Not only does the Cuba government say “categorically…that it does not harbor, support, finance, or permit terrorist or extremist organizations,” it pronounced itself ready for “a respectful and reciprocal dialogue, oriented toward tangible results, with the United States government, based on mutual interest and international law.”
So, what is the United States after? And what, given the stated goals of the National Security Strategy, can the U.S. government achieve?
Regime change is not an option. This is not like Venezuela; it is a very collective leadership and if President Diaz Canal or any other government leader is taken out, others are prepared and will step in. If that doesn’t work, the military is prepared to step in.
Invasion will not work either. This country has been prepared for such an occurrence for many many years; the defenses are well organized and decentralized; the entire population ready for mobilization and to follow instructions. There was a prelude to this in the early 1990s with military exercises and threats under the presidency of George H.W. Bush; the entire country was mobilized; even children knew where they were to go in case of invasion. The country is said to be similarly preparing now.
While there is opposition in Cuba, it is not organized and has no viable base of respected leadership that Trump/Rubio can use; the primary opposition resides outside of the country. Much of the opposition that there is on the island is funded and fomented from outside, and as such would collapse easily when challenged by the government and popular institutions.
Even among any opposition in Cuba, there is also an almost complete and deep felt commitment in every sector of the Cuban population to maintain Cuba’s sovereignty and independence based on history and on the speeches and writing of the revered father of the country, Josè Martí, an influence that extends even to Cubans in the diaspora. This was evident this January 27th as it is every year this time with a turn out of thousands of mostly young people on the anniversary of his birth, a tribute also to his declarations, including the famous “the duty of preventing the United States from spreading through the Antilles as Cuba gains its independence, …annexing our American nations to the brutal and turbulent North which despises them…I have lived in the monster and I know its entrails; my sling is David’s.” Every child in Cuba has been raised on this since independence from Spain and can be counted on to adhere to it.
That leaves just 2 options:
- Find a way to negotiate with the Cuban government on matters that are of mutual interest and benefit to both, such as:
- Control of drug trafficking, already a 8 successful collaboration
- Stopping/preventing illegal migration, for which agreements already exist
- Joint ventures in Cuban minerals such as cobalt/nickel and tourism
- Joint exploration of Cuba’s offshore petroleum fields, discovered by Standard Oil before 1959 and the breaking off of relations
- Developing projects in science and biopharmaceuticals and medicine as already is occurring successful with projects such as the CIMAVAX project with Roswell Park
- Contracting with Cuban doctors to fill some of the gaps currently experienced all over the United States
An additional advantage to the US is that such agreements could provide a counter balance in Cuba to Chinese and Russian economic interests, a stated objective of the current US National Security Strategy, and possibly achievable so long as Cuba’s sovereignty and independence is fully respected.
- All out humanitarian crisis with children and elders dying, hospitals failing, diseases spreading, increasing desperation and despair, massive out migration. Reaction and response can be anticipated not only from the majority of UN countries that have for 33 years voted to end the US embargo of Cuba, but also and most particularly from the countries of t6he Americas and the Caribbean which the US counts on most as allies or at least partners or willing participants in its stated National Security Strategy: Mexico, Brazil, Colombia above all, the countries of the Caribbean, with all of whom Cuba currently has association, such as CELAC, with treaties with agreements and treaties; not to mention Canada, a critical ally of the United States. Reaction and response could also be counted on from BRICS, in which Cuba has partner status.
Given the analysis and views expressed above, it is critical that we in the United States who care deeply about principled foreign relations for our country, hold values of the sacredness of all human life, respect for the rights of others, including their right to choose their own path in life, value our reputation as a country of fairness and humane values, take whatever action is in our power now to:
- Prevent the US from carrying out a full oil embargo of Cuba, as proposed by the Executive through imposition of tariffs, seizing of tankers, or any other measures that continue to cut off Cuba’s ability to import the oil it needs, from wherever it is able to purchase it or receive donations
- Prevent the US administration from cancelling flights and remittances, withdraw licenses or any other measures that increase the sanctions on Cuba, as has been proposed by Rep. Gimenez and hinted at by Secretary of State Marco Rubio
- Call for negotiations with Cuba on terms acceptable to its government as well as to ours
