by Marcus Breen
What will the relationship between the US and China be in this new Trump administration? The Trump Administration is engaged in policy experimentation aimed at long term transformations of liberal US policy, including Chinese containment. Still, anyone making definitive claims about China is on a fool’s errand. Certainly, the new Secretary of State Marco Rubio will make belligerent comments about Chinese socialism before adding negative comments about his favorite target, socialist Cuba. As Secretary of State, Rubio has offered a volte face for international relations, acknowledging on January 30, 2025, that the US is in a multi-polar world.
Is a win-win for the US and China possible, if the US accepts China in a multi-polar world? A key comment by Rubio was, “So it’s not normal for the world to simply have a uni-polar power. That was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multi-polar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet. We face that now with China and to some extent Russia.” His comments confirm what was concluded by former Secretary of the Treasury Gina Raimondo, in December 2024: “Trying to hold China back is a fool’s errand.”
Washington may finally be reaching consensus: that China will continue on its developmental trajectory toward 2045, despite the hawks’ continued anti-China program. On September 10, 2024, U.S. House of Representatives H.R. 1157 allocated $1.5 billion toward “Countering the PRC Malign Influence Fund Authorization Act of 2023.” It “authorizes $325 million annually for fiscal years 2023 through 2027 to combat the Chinese Communist Party’s global influence.” This policy essentially means anything that is not America First.
Then came Rubio’s multi-polarity. Despite the political posturing by hawks of all colors for the American domestic audience, the US Administration will oppose China because that is the stated goal of successive Administrations. I expect to see the following in the next couple of years of the Trump Presidency:
- China’s “socialist modernization” will realize the goals laid out in the 14th Five Year Plan, concluding in 2025.
- Tariffs against China will backfire, driving up prices in the US, causing inflation.
- China’s tariff retaliations will disturb US business, especially loss of access to rare earth minerals.
- Western Europe will expand its trade with China, as developing China-EU trade routes mature.
- The US trend of “less economic relevance” to China will continue as BRICS expands.
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative will increasingly exclude the US and US Dollar currency.
- Young people will become aware of Chinese socialist success compared to US capitalist decline.
- US efforts to undermine China through misinformation, public policies and sabre rattling will unevenly escalate.
- China will continue its defensive military buildup in reaction to US provocations in the region, including western “blocs” such as Australia/ United Kingdom/ United States (AUKUS), the Asia-Pacific Partnership, and military bases surrounding China.
- The US will accept that it will not be able to keep up with China, prompting more America First.
For the peace movement, the goal will be to continue to advocate for co-existence between China and the US and look beyond the hawks. A signal of change will be if the US leadership – Trump or Rubio – utter the phrase that defines the Chinese government’s philosophy: win-win. Everything else is a fool’s errand.
Dr Marcus Breen was born in Melbourne, Australia and educated at The University of Queensland, The Australian National University and Victoria University, Melbourne. Since 2014 he has been a full-time faculty member of the Communication Department at Boston College.